Tuesday + Jason Pinter = Between the Covers
The Hard Way
Well I’m back. Didja miss me? You didn’t? You were too busy celebrating the 4th of July, barbecuing delicious meats and veggies and sipping margaritas on the beach? Are you trying to say that’s more exciting than my column? Pfft. Who needs you.
Anyway…
In case you haven’t read the New York Times or Wall Street Journal recently (or, in that matter, visited a bookstore in 20 years), you know about this phenomenon called “The Paperback Original.” Paperback originals, once looked down on with disdain as “B list rack fillers,” are now fully embraced by both the publishing industry and booksellers alike. More often than ever, publishers are introducing debut authors in paperback in the hopes of offering their books to readers at lower cost, with higher print runs than a debut hardcover, hence the chance to build a larger readership faster. Of course, the eventual hope is to grow the author to become a hardcover staple, and the paperback is generally a means to that end.
But let’s look at the other side. There are many reasons why authors (not to mention agents) prefer to begin their careers in hardcover. Firstly, there’s more money in hardcover. Publishers make more per book, so they can afford to pay authors more money per book. Secondly, reviewers tend to take hardcovers more seriously and give them more attention. More reviews mean more ink means more exposure means more sales. Thirdly, the sensation of the book itself. Is there a better feeling than holding that hardback in your hands? It feels like a work of art, right? Right? Damn right.
The great P.J Parrish wrote on Murderati about her (their?) career as a paperback writer. How their books have progressively gotten bigger, with higher print runs and attention, even hitting the New York Times bestseller list. Overall I thought it was a terrific post. But it hit a foul note on one thing. P.J. talks about how she (they?) would prefer to go out as a paperback original, with several hundred thousand copies, than as an overprinted hardcover with 40,000 or 50,000. Makes sense, right? Right? Wrong.
See, another good thing about hardcovers is that the better they perform in that format, the more potential they have in paperback. The major bestselling authors who sell hundreds of thousands of copies in hardcover also sell in the millions in paperback. Yes, you read that right, millions. The more copies an author sells in hardcover, the more copies they sell in paperback. And bestselling hardcover authors always sell more of their paperbacks than bestselling original paperback authors.
But there are mitigating factors. Perhaps the most important barometer of every book is not net sales, not royalties earned, but a mysterious term called “Sell through.” What is sell through? Pretty simple. It’s the number of books sold divided by the number of books shipped. So if book X ships 30,000 copies and sells 15,000 of them, Book X has a sell through of 50%. It’s a simple equation that gives the publisher an idea of just how desirable the book was to readers. A lower sell through means there was more supply, less demend. A higher sell through means more demand, less supply, and the publisher had to go back for multiple printings (nothing publishers love more than multiple printings).
When a book is published, there’s a certain expectation as to what the sell through will be. For a hardcover, they expect approximately 65%. For a trade paperback, around 70%. For a mass market paperback, around 50%-60%. On her blog, P.J. says that a publisher debuting an author in hardcover is setting the author up for failure. Not necessarily true…but let’s just say that if the first book doesn’t work, the author’s going to have a mighty hard time recovering.
If a debut hardcover author has a first printing of 25,000 copies, and sells 12,500 of those for a 50% sell through, that’s considered below expectations. It means the paperback will go out with fewer copies, and their next hardcover will likely go out with 18,000 or even 15,000 copies. And if that sell through is low…look out below. Generally paperback authors do ship more copies than debut hardcovers, usually between 50,000-250,000 depending on the size of the push from their publisher. (most publishers have one or two hardcover “make” debuts a year, where they pull out all marketing and publicity stops and have first printings in the 80,000-100,000 range, sometimes higher. If it works—THE RULE OF FOUR, THE WIDOW OF THE SOUTH—the sky’s the limit). Paperback authors generally take a little longer to build up their audiences, taking 3, or 5, or 10 books before their publisher is confident to move them to hardcover. But when they do, their career is on infinitely better footing than a debut hardcoveralist. Look at authors like Lisa Jackson and Sherrilyn Kenyon. Both of them recently published their very first hardcover after many successful paperback originals. And both hardcovers debuted in the top 5 on the New York Times bestseller list. And their paperback editions will likely go out in higher numbers than their paperback originals. So it’s not “50,000 hardcovers versus 250,000 paperbacks,” it’s “50,000 hardcovers plus 250,000 paperbacks versus 250,000 paperbacks.”
So in the end, what I’ve found is that it’s easier to break an author out in hardcover, but easier to grow a career in paperback. Some of the bestselling and most respected authors of our generation began publishing paperback originals. Robert Crais. Lisa Scottoline. Jhumpa Lahiri. Laura Lippman. Harlan Coben. Many of the most promising authors of the future began their careers or currently publish in paperback. Allison Brennan. Charlie Huston. Naomi Novik. A.J. Hartley. Richard Doetsch. Our very own M.J. Rose. (She had three hardcovers and a TB original before moving to PB - but the previous novels were in another genre.) They brought luster to a category formerly shunned by elitists, showing that maintaining a longterm career benefits from years of building your audience.
Oh yeah, my debut novel is being published in paperback. And I’m damn happy about it. But a hardcover in a few years will still feel pretty darn nice…
Author of THE MARK
Coming July, 2007 from MIRA books
Great post, Jason, and thank you for all the good explanation of the numbers. This stuff still makes my head spin.
Posted by: Cornelia Read | July 11, 2006 at 11:10 AM
I agree with you 100%. My goal has always been to be in hardcover down the road. It's the WHEN that is the million dollar question. Too soon, and you can sink or slowdown your career. I think there's a point in PBO printruns where you look and say, "Okay, this is a good time to make the jump." I'm thinking when you get to 400-500K first print run for commercial fiction, but what do you think?
Posted by: Allison Brennan | July 11, 2006 at 11:20 AM
Is it my imagination, or was no one really talking about this 6 months ago? Thanks for shedding light on a murky and controversial subject, Jason. I'm coming out on MMPB too, and am very pleased to do so.
Posted by: JT Ellison | July 11, 2006 at 11:25 AM
This is very interesting. What about trade paperback original debuts? Are they the best of both worlds, in your (or anyone's) opinion, or the worst?
Not that it's a self-interested question or anything. :-)
Posted by: Jeri | July 11, 2006 at 11:25 AM
MJ - I missed you. Went through two boxes of Kleenex - the extra thick kind. Glad you're back; Love your blog.
Posted by: Lorra Laven | July 11, 2006 at 12:36 PM
If your print runs are in the 400-500k range, your publisher is probably already planning your jump to hardcover. The only potential hold up is if you want to publish more than one book/year, since consumers are wary of plunking down $23 more than once in 12 months. Debbie Macomber actually does something quite smart, publishing one new hardcover AND one new paperback original every year.
As for trade paperback, generally the print runs are smaller than mass market (between 15,000-30,000 copies), but successful ones have a longer shelf life than mass market.
Posted by: Jason Pinter | July 11, 2006 at 01:16 PM
M.J. and I were just speaking about this very topic...
It is definitely hard to get media/review attention for PBOs. That, to my mind, is one of the biggest disadvantages to the format. (I think I'm one of the few critics who regularly reviews them.)
On the other hand, PBO can be a great way to debut, as it only requires readers to slap down $7 to try an unknown author, rather than $25.
But I agree that it's not the place you want to stay, if you can avoid it.
Posted by: David J. Montgomery | July 11, 2006 at 06:12 PM
Jason, I'm totally with you on the hardcover/mass market strategy. Nora Roberts does the same thing as Debbie Macomber, except she does 2-3 hardcovers and 3 PBOs a year. (I'm not THAT prolific.)
Posted by: Allison Brennan | July 11, 2006 at 09:17 PM
The new book is terrific! Get it now at www.mysterylovers.com!
As the "Very Original" columnist for many years in Mystery Scene Magazine, I must say I celebrate the paperback original. This has always been the "cutting edge" of mystery pubs. High risk and low pay mean the publishers will experiment. I always advocate for the best to come out in both. Unfortunately, the high return rates from the big b's and the boxes have made it a bigger finacial risk.
Still, I devour these new voices and my customers who buy paperbacks by the dozen do too. Let's keep badgering all the publishers to see that "papering the walls" in the big stores is their risk and short sightedness.
May all those authors who I have called after reading the first PBO ARC with our enthusiasm get all the print they so rightfully deserve. Many of them have gone on to win and become big sellers.
Mystery readers crave new, interesting, topical and handy pubs. You go guys!!!!
Mary Alice-----who reads most PBOs in a night and knows that is is still a cheaper and more exciting discovery than any other entertainment offered in our culture.
Posted by: Mary Alice Gorman | July 12, 2006 at 12:40 PM
Jason,
I have to correct one thing you said about my Murderati piece:
You wrote: "On her blog, P.J. says that a publisher debuting an author in hardcover is setting the author up for failure."
I didn't say that. I wasn't talking about publishers in general. That reference was to one SPECIFIC case of an author (who I am mentoring for MWA) whose publisher gave her debut hardcover a very high print run then cut her from their list after she failed to generate a decent sell-through. In putting this author in the position of having to not only earn back a big advance AND deliver a high sell-through, the publisher did, indeed, set her up for failure. It was a classic case of a publisher betting a wad on a longshot and then shooting the horse after it comes in ninth. Sadly, we can all name similar cases of highly hyped debuts that led to quick obscurity.
And it does not necessarily follow that a hardcover sale can generate a following wave of paperback success. Many HC authors don't even GET paperback release. And without that, they are hardpressed to get into the non-bookstore places (drugstores, airports, etc.) they need to reach the mass market.
But I do agree with your comment that it may be easier to GROW an author in PBO. And considering the rising cost of HCs, PBO might be the only viable route. That's probably the thinking behind the current trend.
Oh, and for the record, we are a "they." Although only an "I" wrote the blog piece. :) And I am eagerly anticipating the day I move back into hardcover!
Posted by: PJ Parrish | July 15, 2006 at 05:37 PM
Jason, you are a doll. Thanks for taking the time to break all this down - I've been wondering for ages.
Alex
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